06 · About
A public test of a baseball prediction stack.
One person. A stack of models — moneyline, totals, strikeouts, hitter props. One season, in public, from first pitch to settled grade.
[01]
What this is
Closerbets is a one-person research project. It exists to answer one question, in public, with receipts: can a stack of stats-driven models — one for each betting market — consistently beat the MLB closing line over a full season?
The closing line is the market's final answer on a game, set minutes before first pitch after every sharp bettor has weighed in. Beating it consistently is the closest thing sports betting has to objective proof of edge. Everything on this site is built around measuring that, transparently.
Every pick is time-stamped before the game starts. Every result is settled the next morning. Every closing line is captured automatically ten minutes before first pitch and compared against the line we actually got. Nothing is editable after the fact.
Tracking started April 9, 2026. 91 settled picks so far. The full record lives on /track-record, and the model itself is documented on /methodology.
[02]
Why public
A betting model is only as good as its forward-tested track record. Backtests are easy to overfit; private spreadsheets are easy to revise. The only honest evaluation is one where the predictions are published before the game and the results are settled in the open.
Publishing also doubles as the cheapest possible test of whether the work has commercial value. If organic traffic shows up, that's a signal. If it doesn't, that's also a signal.
[03]
What you can verify
Every number on this site comes from a single source of truth — one append-only ledger of picks, time-stamped before each game and never edited after settlement. Three places to look:
Track record
Lifetime ROI, P&L, CLV, drawdown, and per-market breakdown.
Daily cards
Every settled day, with picks, lines, results, CLV, and post-mortem grades.
Methodology
What the model is, what it isn't, and what doesn't ship and why.
[04]
Inquiries
The site is informational. Picks aren't for sale, and there aren't plans to gate them. That said, two kinds of message are welcome:
Bettors & analysts
Questions, methodology critique, feature suggestions.
Press
Happy to share more detail on the underlying model.
One inbox for all of the above: hello@closerbets.com.
[05]
Disclaimers
Closerbets publishes information about an MLB prediction model. It is not a betting service, not investment advice, and not a guarantee. Past performance — including the track record on this site — does not predict future results.
Sports betting is legal only in some jurisdictions and only for adults 21 and over. If you choose to bet, do so within your means. Resources for problem gambling are available at ncpgambling.org.