04 · Research
What we track but don't bet.
The card only shows picks we put real money behind. Everything else lives here — markets the model produces, scored against outcomes, transparently held to the same standard before any of it earns a spot on the card.
Shadow markets
For each market the model handicaps but we don't currently bet, we track every pick it would have made and resolve it against the actual outcome. P&L below is paper for prop markets and shadow for runline (no money at stake). CLV is measured for runline only; prop closing odds aren't consistently captured.
Derived from the moneyline ensemble + totals model via Pythagorean inversion. Tracked alongside the daily card; not on the card yet because we want a longer settled sample before sizing real money behind it.
Pitcher K over/unders. The model produces picks; they're paper-traded so we can score the projection without committing units. Roughly break-even so far — close to the bar, but not enough edge to displace ML/totals.
Hitter hits over/unders. Hardest market we track — line liquidity is thin and prop juice eats most of the edge. Currently net negative in paper, which is exactly why we don't bet it.