02 · Daily Card
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Record
1-2
Picks
3
P&L
-0.32u
CLV
-0.8%
Settled picks
Sorted by edge at pick time
Matchup
Pick
Edge
CLV
Result
Grade
NYY @ BOS
Over 7.5Total
15.0%
-2.3%
Bad Bet
Open-115fanatics→Close-105
Model total: 9.5 vs line 7.5 (+2.0 runs) | Hittable SPs: Max Fried (average) vs Ranger Suarez (below avg) | BOS bullpen exhausted, NYY pen fully rested
HOU @ CLE
HOU MLML
13.4%
+0.0%
Got Lucky
Open+135betmgm→Close+135
Pitching advantage: Peter Lambert (strong) over Tanner Bibee (average) | Bullpen concern: HOU pen exhausted but model still sees value | HP: Alex Tosi (pitcher-friendly, -0.2 runs) | CLE fatigued (returning from road trip) | Price value play: model near 50/50 (48%) but price is off (+13.4% EV)
TOR @ LAA
TOR MLML
12.0%
+0.0%
Bad Bet
Open+130fanduel→Close+130
Pitching disadvantage but value in price: Eric Lauer (average) vs José Soriano (ace) | Bullpen edge: TOR pen available, LAA taxed | LAA fatigued (returning from road trip) | Price value play: model near 50/50 (49%) but price is off (+12.0% EV)