02 · Daily Card
Sunday, April 26, 2026
Record
1-3
Picks
4
P&L
-1.05u
CLV
+0.8%
Settled picks
Sorted by edge at pick time
Matchup
Pick
Edge
CLV
Result
Grade
SDP @ ARI
Under 15.5Total
65.8%
+0.0%
Bad Bet
Open-105fanatics→Close-105
Model total: 9.3 vs line 15.5 (-6.2 runs) | SPs: Michael King (strong) vs Ryne Nelson (average)
CHC @ LAD
Under 9Total
20.2%
+2.6%
Got Lucky
Open-110fanduel→Close-122
Model total: 8.3 vs line 9.0 (-0.7 runs) | Ace on the mound: Shota Imanaga (strong) vs Justin Wrobleski (average) | LAD bullpen fresh
PHI @ ATL
PHI MLML
15.9%
+0.0%
Bad Bet
Open+185betmgm→Close+185
Pitching disadvantage but value in price: Aaron Nola (strong) vs Chris Sale (ace) | Bullpen concern: PHI pen available but model still sees value | ATL fatigued (returning from road trip) | ATL hot (77%) but price compensates | Model 41% vs market 34% (+15.9% EV)
MIN @ TBR
MIN MLML
11.4%
+0.8%
Unlucky
Open+130fanduel→Close+126
Pitching disadvantage but value in price: Simeon Woods Richardson (average) vs Griffin Jax (strong) | Bullpen edge: MIN pen taxed, TBR exhausted | TBR hot (67%) but price compensates | Price value play: model near 50/50 (48%) but price is off (+11.4% EV)