Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Casey Mize brings a superior 3.98 xFIP against Martín Pérez's 4.13, while our model projects 8.77 total runs versus the 9.0 betting line. Atlanta's defensive edge with +9 OAA compared to Detroit's -17 OAA creates additional run prevention, making the under a strong value play at 18.23% expected value.

Chase Burns takes the mound with a 4.35 xFIP against Colorado's struggling offense that ranks below league average at 94.56 wRC+. The model projects 8.85 total runs while the betting line sits at 9.0, creating a 0.15-run edge. Cincinnati's home bullpen advantage (4 vs 1 score) should help preserve the under in late innings.