02 · Daily Card
Sunday, April 19, 2026
Record
2-2
Picks
4
P&L
+0.63u
CLV
+3.4%
Settled picks
Sorted by edge at pick time
Matchup
Pick
Edge
CLV
Result
Grade
LAD @ COL
COL MLML
19.3%
+6.9%
Good Bet
Open+235fanduel→Close+172
Pitching disadvantage but value in price: Michael Lorenzen (37) vs Roki Sasaki (47) | Opp has stronger lineup (111 wRC+) but price compensates | Bullpen concern: COL pen depleted (1) but model still sees value | Hitter-friendly park (1.30x runs) | Home team fatigued (returning from road trip) | LAD hot (75%) but price compensates | Model 36% vs market (+19.3% EV)
DET @ BOS
Over 7Total
17.1%
+1.1%
Got Lucky
Open-110draftkings→Close-115
Model total: 9.1 vs line 7.0 (+2.1 runs) | Hittable SPs: Framber Valdez (38, weak) vs Garrett Crochet (44, weak) | BOS bullpen depleted (1), DET pen OK (67)
TEX @ SEA
TEX MLML
16.8%
+1.6%
Unlucky
Open+126fanduel→Close+118
Even pitching: MacKenzie Gore (54) vs Bryan Woo (51) | Bullpen edge: TEX pen fresh (86), SEA taxed (64) | Price value play: model near 50/50 (52%) but price is off (+16.8% EV)
CHW @ ATH
Under 9Total
16.1%
+4.1%
Unlucky
Open+100draftkings→Close-118
Model total: 9.1 vs line 9.0 — value in the price | SPs: Noah Schultz (44, weak) vs Jeffrey Springs (54)