02 · Daily Card
Monday, April 20, 2026
Record
3-1
Picks
4
P&L
+0.81u
CLV
+0.8%
Settled picks
Sorted by edge at pick time
Matchup
Pick
Edge
CLV
Result
Grade
HOU @ CLE
Under 7.5Total
61.7%
+1.1%
Bad Bet
Open-115betmgm→Close-120
Model total: 4.6 vs line 7.5 (-2.9 runs) | SPs: Spencer Arrighetti (58, solid) vs Slade Cecconi (44, weak) | Cold (34°F) — suppresses offense
PHI @ CHC
Under 7.5Total
26.8%
+1.2%
Good Bet
Open+100fanatics→Close-105
Model total: 6.7 vs line 7.5 (-0.8 runs) | SPs: Aaron Nola (52) vs Colin Rea (49) | PHI bullpen fresh (68) | Cold (43°F) — suppresses offense | PHI fatigued (666mi travel) — offense may suffer
STL @ MIA
MIA MLML
25.4%
+0.7%
Got Lucky
Open-130fanduel→Close-134
Pitching advantage: Max Meyer (47) over Michael McGreevy (34) | Bullpen edge: MIA pen fresh (51), STL taxed (1) | STL hot (67%) but price compensates | High conviction + strong edge: model 71%, +25.4% EV
BAL @ KCR
BAL MLML
25.0%
+0.0%
Got Lucky
Open-115fanatics→Close-115
Even pitching: Kyle Bradish (48) vs Seth Lugo (48) | Bullpen edge: BAL pen fresh (70), KCR taxed (1) | Home team fatigued (returning from road trip) | High conviction + strong edge: model 67%, +25.0% EV